Crypto Price Predictions Explained: What We Learned

For several years, TradingBeasts published algorithmic price predictions for hundreds of cryptocurrencies. We have since retired them and focus on what we do best: testing brokers and comparing them side by side on costs, platforms and regulation. This page explains how our model worked, what running it taught us about crypto forecasts, and how to approach crypto prices and crypto trading today.

If you followed a link from an article quoting a TradingBeasts forecast for Bitcoin, Ethereum or another coin, that figure came from the model described below. Our old coin pages showed a minimum, maximum and average price for every month several years ahead. Those forecasts are no longer published or updated, so any number quoted elsewhere reflects the market at the time it was written.

How our crypto prediction model worked

Our forecasts were built on historical price data. For each coin, the model fitted a combination of linear and polynomial regressions to past prices and projected that curve forward, month by month, for up to several years. Every forecast came with a minimum, maximum and average price for each month, updated automatically as new price data arrived.

The approach was transparent and consistent, and it could cover hundreds of coins at once. That scale was also its biggest weakness, because a model that treats every coin the same way cannot know anything about any single project.

What running the model taught us

Running an automated forecasting tool for years gave us a clear view of where price predictions go wrong. These are the lessons we took from it:

• Trends do not continue forever. A regression model extends the most recent trend into the future. After a strong rally, it projects more of the same. For some small tokens, our old pages projected the price multiplying many times over within a few years, simply because their recent charts pointed sharply upward.
• Crypto changes regime suddenly. Bull markets, crashes, exchange collapses and regulatory decisions change the behaviour of the whole market overnight. Historical data cannot see these turning points coming.
• Coins disappear or change. Projects get renamed, migrate to new tokens or lose their listings. When that happened, our data feeds broke and some forecast pages showed missing values or prices that made no sense.
• Fundamentals are invisible to the model. Token unlocks, team departures, hacks and changes in network activity matter enormously for price, and none of them appear in a price chart until it is too late.

Our conclusion: an algorithmic price prediction can show what would happen if the recent trend continued. It cannot tell you whether it will.

How to judge any crypto price prediction

Price predictions are everywhere in crypto. Before you give one any weight, ask these questions:

• What is the method? An automated model, an analyst's opinion and a survey of influencers are very different things. If the source does not explain its method, treat the number as a guess.
• Is there a published track record? Reliable forecasters let you see their past predictions next to what actually happened. Most prediction sites do not.
• When was it made? A forecast written before a major market move may already be meaningless. Check the date.
• What does it assume? Many long term targets quietly assume continued adoption, approvals or new money flowing into the market.
• Who benefits? Projects, exchanges and promoters often publish bullish targets for coins they hold or list.

What actually moves crypto prices

Instead of relying on a single number, it helps to understand the forces behind crypto price movements:

• Liquidity and interest rates. Crypto tends to perform best when money is cheap and investors are willing to take risk. Central bank decisions and inflation data often move Bitcoin within minutes.
• Bitcoin halving cycles. Roughly every four years, the reward for mining new Bitcoin is cut in half, reducing new supply. Past cycles have been linked to major rallies, although each cycle has played out differently.
• Institutional flows. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs made it easy for traditional investors to buy crypto exposure. Daily inflows and outflows from these funds are now closely watched.
• Regulation and legal news. Approvals, bans, lawsuits and new licensing rules can move individual coins or the entire market.
• Token supply. Scheduled unlocks of tokens held by teams and early investors can add selling pressure, especially for newer projects.
• Leverage. When many traders hold leveraged positions, a sharp move can trigger forced liquidations that push the price even further.
• Weekends. Crypto trades seven days a week while forex and stock markets are closed, so large moves can happen when most traders cannot react. Only some brokers offer crypto trading on weekends.
• Bitcoin itself. Most altcoins rise and fall with Bitcoin, so its direction usually matters more for a smaller coin than anything specific to that project.

Where to trade crypto

At TradingBeasts we focus on trading crypto as CFDs with regulated forex and CFD brokers. CFDs let you go long or short and trade Bitcoin and other coins next to forex, gold and indices from one account. You never own the coins, and leverage increases both gains and losses.

The broker you choose decides your costs, your platform and how well your money is protected. Start with our overview of the best crypto brokers. Crypto spreads are much wider than on major forex pairs, so compare costs in our list of low spread crypto brokers.

If you already have a preferred platform, see the best MT4 crypto brokers, the best MT5 crypto brokers and the best TradingView brokers for crypto.

Already trading? Some brokers let you cut your costs with a partner code. At Exness and RoboForex, partner code rebates also apply to crypto trades.

Risk warning

Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile, and their prices can fall sharply in a short time. CFDs are complex instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. No one can predict crypto prices with certainty. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Only trade with money you can afford to lose.

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